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★ Wednesday — Stock Edition
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Born During COVID. Worth $100 Billion Six Years Later.
Howmet Aerospace makes the parts that keep jets in the air. Wall Street can’t stop raising its price target.
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April 1, 2020. The world was shutting down. Flights were grounded. Airports were empty.
That’s the day Howmet Aerospace was born.
It spun off from Arconic — itself a spinoff from Alcoa. Two splits in four years. The roots go back to 1888. But this new company launched at the worst possible moment for anything with “Aerospace” in its name.
Six years later, it’s worth over $100 billion. The stock is up more than 60% in the past year alone.
And here’s where it gets good...
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Howmet makes things you’ll never see but your life depends on. Turbine blades for jet engines. Titanium structures for fighter jets. Fasteners that hold airframes together at 600 miles per hour. Forged aluminum wheels for 18-wheelers.
These aren’t generic parts. They’re precision-cast in superalloys at extreme temperatures. Some turbine blades spin at 40,000 RPM in 2,500-degree heat. If one fails, the engine fails. So Howmet’s customers — Pratt & Whitney, GE Aerospace, Rolls-Royce — don’t switch suppliers on a whim.
That’s the moat. Once you’re qualified on an engine program, you’re locked in for decades.
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The Q1 numbers were stunning. Revenue hit $2.31 billion — up 19% from a year ago. Adjusted earnings per share rose 42% to $1.22. The GAAP figure was higher — $1.44 — but that includes a one-time $93 million gain from selling a forging plant in Savannah. Adjusted EBITDA grew 32% to $740 million, with margins at 32%.
Free cash flow hit a first-quarter record: $359 million. The company used it to buy back $300 million in stock. Then bought another $150 million in April.
And CEO John Plant raised guidance — again. Full-year revenue is now expected near $9.65 billion. That’s nearly double where the company started in 2020. A fair chunk of the recent jump — roughly $275 million — comes from the CAM and Brunner acquisitions. But the organic growth is real, too. Think about that.
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Here’s why this matters for American manufacturing. Boeing and Airbus have a combined backlog of over 15,000 planes. That’s roughly ten years of production. Every single one needs turbine blades, fasteners, and titanium parts — made right here.
Howmet runs 27 facilities across the U.S. and employs over 25,000 people. It just spent $1.8 billion to buy CAM — an aerospace fastener company — and another $120 million for Brunner Manufacturing. Both make parts in America.
Defense spending is rising, too. Howmet’s defense aerospace revenue grew 21% in full-year 2025. Fighter jets, missile systems, and military helicopters all need its components.
And there’s a third engine. Gas turbines. The AI data center boom is driving massive demand for power generation. Howmet makes critical turbine parts for that market, too. Gas turbine revenue grew 25% in 2025. Three tailwinds at once: commercial jets, defense, and energy.
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★ The Spares Boom
Combined spares revenue — across commercial, defense, and gas turbines — jumped 36% last quarter to about $520 million. Airlines are flying planes harder and longer because they can’t get new ones fast enough. That means more overhauls, more replacement blades, more Howmet parts.
Spares now make up 23% of total revenue — and they carry fat margins. This isn’t a one-quarter blip. It’s a multi-year cycle.
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★ THE INVESTOR ANGLE — HOWMET AEROSPACE (NYSE: HWM)
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Market Cap
~$102B
Up 60%+ in 12 mo.
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Q1 Revenue
$2.31B
+19% YoY
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EBITDA Margin
32%
+320 bps YoY
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The bull case is the backlog. A decade of aircraft orders means a decade of Howmet parts. Spares revenue is accelerating. Margins are expanding. And the company is buying competitors to get even bigger.
Now the risks — and there are real ones. The trailing GAAP P/E sits near 69. The forward P/E is around 55. Both are well above Howmet’s eight-year average of roughly 38. This stock is priced for perfection.
The $1.8 billion CAM deal added $1.65 billion in new debt. Net leverage jumped from 0.9x to 1.6x EBITDA. Management says it will come down fast, but integration risk is real. CAM won’t be EPS accretive until 2027. If something goes sideways, the debt is already on the books.
Boeing remains a wild card. Any production slowdown — another quality issue, a supply chain snag — hits Howmet directly. The dividend yield is just 0.18%, so you’re not getting paid to wait.
That said, seven analysts raised their price targets after Q1. Targets generally range from $284 to $320. Citi went to $303. Jefferies: $320. When you make the parts nobody else can make — and every airline on Earth needs more planes — that’s a strong position. Just know what you’re paying for it.
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