Credit is tightening again. And the pressure is building in a very uneven way.

What’s actually happening

Credit card delinquencies have climbed back above pre-2020 levels. Depending on the dataset, you’re looking at roughly 3 percent or higher for serious delinquencies, which is back in the range last seen before stimulus flooded the system.

Auto loan delinquencies are telling a similar story, especially in subprime. Some segments are now pushing well past 2019 levels. At the same time, the cost of borrowing hasn’t come down.

Average credit card interest rates are still sitting around 20 to 21 percent. That means anyone carrying a balance is paying historically high interest just to stay current. And banks have noticed.

Lending standards have been tightening again in recent months. Not aggressively, but steadily. Less willingness to extend credit, more focus on higher-quality borrowers, and slower loan growth overall.

So on one side, you’ve got rising stress. On the other, you’ve got less access to credit.

While the average person faces these tightening restrictions, a specific group of insiders appears to be playing by a different set of rules entirely.

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So why hasn’t spending broken yet

This is where it gets interesting. The consumer isn’t moving as one group anymore.

Higher-income households are still in good shape. They locked in lower mortgage rates years ago, they have more savings, and they’re less sensitive to short-term borrowing costs.

That group is still spending on travel, dining, and services.

Meanwhile, lower-income consumers are the ones feeling the pressure. They’re the ones relying more on credit cards, more exposed to rising interest rates, and more likely to fall behind on payments.

So instead of a broad slowdown, you get a split. One part of the economy keeps moving. The other starts to strain and when you average those together, the overall data still looks okay.

Where this shows up in real business

You can already see this in how companies are performing.

Airlines and hotels are still reporting solid demand, especially in premium segments. Restaurants at the higher end are holding up better than fast food chains, which are starting to talk more about value-conscious consumers.

Retail is mixed. Discount retailers are seeing more traffic, while some mid-tier brands are getting squeezed.

So the signal isn’t that demand is collapsing. It’s that it’s shifting.

What’s changed in mid to late April

In mid to late April, the trend isn’t new, but it’s becoming harder to ignore. Delinquencies are still creeping higher. Loan growth is slowing further and banks are continuing to pull back slightly on risk, especially in areas like credit cards and auto lending.

None of this is happening fast enough to shock the system. But it’s happening steadily enough to matter.

The bigger picture

This is the kind of setup that usually plays out with a delay. Credit conditions tighten first. Spending adjusts later.

Right now, we’re in the middle of that process.

The top half of consumers is still carrying enough weight to keep overall demand stable. That’s why earnings haven’t broken in a big way. But the lower end is already under pressure.

If that pressure spreads, or if the higher-income consumer starts to pull back even slightly, the picture changes quickly.

Do you think the consumer stays resilient as long as higher-income spending holds up?

Or does stress at the lower end eventually pull everything down with it?

And how long can spending stay strong if credit keeps tightening in the background?

Curious how you’re seeing it.

Oil disruptions, higher fuel costs, and supply chain pressure are already showing up in prices and business decisions.